DOHA, QATAR – NOVEMBER 21: (L-R) Opponents Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry of Ireland face off during the UFC Fight Night ceremonial weigh-in at ABHA Arena on November 21, 2025 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

The welterweight division is easily the UFC’s best and deepest division in terms of talent. At UFC Qatar, the co-main event between former welterweight champion and #2 contender Belal Muhammad and #6-ranked welterweight Ian Machado Garry will bring much-needed clarity to a welterweight division filled with several unique and interesting title challengers, such as Michael Morales, Carlos Prates, and Shavkat Rakhmonov. How Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry’s matchup plays out will set a clearer trajectory for the UFC welterweight title picture and shape an uncertain 2026 plan for the division. 

A Win SHOULD Solidify Ian Machado Garry as the Rightful Number One Contender

Over the past year, Ian Machado Garry has been the most tested welterweight in the UFC. At UFC 310 in December of 2024, Machado Garry lost a closely contested fight with the boogeyman of the welterweight division, Shavkat Rakhmonov, who scored 48-47 on all three judges’ scorecards. In April of this year, Machado Garry fought the current #5-ranked Carlos Prates, outstriking the Fighting Nerds star 141-64 and demonstrating excellent speed, timing, and footwork. Now, Machado Garry will face former champion Belal Muhammad. A win will secure Machado Garry two wins against top-five-ranked opponents. No active top-five welterweight has secured multiple wins against other active top-five welterweights. Based on merit, Ian Machado Garry would be the most deserving title challenger with a win over Belal Muhammad at UFC Qatar. Ian Machado Garry’s case for a title shot is further strengthened by the fact that the only man who beat him, Shavkat Rakhmonov, has missed all of 2025 due to injury. Rakhmonov, who won a number one contender’s bout against Machado Garry at UFC 310 in December of 2024, may find himself in a similar position to Arman Tsurykan, who needs another fight before a title shot after being sidelined for over a year due to injury.

“When you come to the division and you achieve the success that you wanted to achieve, and you succeed in getting to your dreams than you also need to be the man to back it up and fight the best welterweights in the world. He’s calling out Kamaru Usman. That’s a has been. Someone who used to be, not is right now. When you’ve got the likes of me Morales, Prates, all of us contending to be the next best thing in this division. When I knock out Belal this weekend, I am the number one contender and the right thing to do Islam, is to defend the belt against me.” Ian Machado Garry told reporters at UFC Media Day prior to his match with Belal Muhummad

A convincing win for Ian Machado Garry, similar to how Michael Morales and Carlos Prates performed against Sean Brady and Leon Edwards at UFC 322, will establish Ian Machado Garry as the rightful number one contender.

Belal Muhummad’s Path is More Difficult

We have seen plenty of former champions return to the title picture quickly after losing their belts. We have seen this with Jiří Procházka, Charles Oliviera, Israel Adesanya, and Sean O’Malley in recent years. Even the welterweight division’s own Kamaru Usman is pushing for a title fight after just one win in the last three years. It does not take much for more champions to jump right back into the title conversation. However, all of those former champions were exciting fighters, fan favorites, and massive draws for the UFC, whereas Belal Muhammad is none of those things. Despite his lack of popularity, Belal Muhummad is an excellent fighter and matches up better against the champion than Michael Morales and Carlos Prates do. If he beats Ian Machado Garry, a chance to reclaim the belt makes more sense for Belal Muhammad than for Kamaru Usman, based on merit. However, the UFC is in the business of selling tickets, and Kamaru Usman is a significantly bigger draw than Belal Muhammad. If Belal Muhammad wins this fight, which he certainly has the skillset to do, the door for Kamaru Usman to slide in and fight for the welterweight title opens. The best thing the UFC can do is book Belal Muhammad against Kamaru Usman. There is bad blood there, and it could make for an excellent number one contender’s bout if Belal gets through Ian Machado Garry.

This Fight Needs to Be Exciting….

The UFC is in the business of making money, and to make money, they need to sell tickets. To sell tickets, they need to book exciting fights. Fair or not, Ian Machado Garry and Belal Muhummad have both been labeled boring fighters. Belal Muhummad has one win via finish in his last ten UFC fights, and Ian Machado Garry has not won via finish in his previous five fights. The welterweight division does not have a shortage of talent or rising stars capable of becoming main-event talent. Suppose Ian Machado Garry or Belal Muhummad cannot deliver an exciting performance at UFC Qatar. In that case, the door is open for another contender to step in and fight for the belt. Both Ian and Belal are very technical and smart fighters, but fans are naturally more drawn to fighters like Prates and Morales, who are pure showmen in the octagon, embracing the action and nature of the sport. At 26, Michael Morales is perhaps the UFC’s most promising young superstar, and Carlos Prates can deliver an exciting performance and attract casual fans, possibly better than anyone in the welterweight division right now.

“I think I’m the most entertaining guy in the welterweight division. So when somebody tries to grapple me, do the boring things, you guys pay to watch violence, to watch blood, yeah? Not boring fights.” Carlos Prates told Joe Rogan and the MSG Crowd following his KO victory over Leon Edwards.

Ian Machado Garry and Belal Muhummad do not have the same level of excitement and energy surrounding them. If Belal Muhummad goes out and wrestles Ian Machado Garry to a decision, a title shot seems unlikely. Suppose Ian Machado moves around the octagon and uses distance management to outpoint Belal to a decision victory. In that case, he may be passed over for a title shot despite being worthy of one. Look how long fighters like Mosvar Evloev, Merab Dvalishvili, and Magomed Ankalaev have had to wait. There is a reason the UFC did not make this fight a main event or announce it as a number-one contender’s fight. They are unsure whether either fighter can deliver the performance needed to earn a title shot, and with Morales, Prates, and Usman in this division, keeping their options open is the wise decision.