LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 11: Canelo Álvarez (L) and Terence Crawford (R) face off onstage during Netflix’s Canelo vs Crawford press conference at T-Mobile Arena on September 11, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images for Netflix)
Undoubtedly the biggest fight of the decade between Canelo Alvarez and Terence Crawford is taking place on Saturday in Las Vegas Nevada. When breaking down this fight for you, it kind of reminds me a lot of Sugar Ray Leonard and Marvin Hagler. For starters, it is one of the few fights in history that decides the king of a generation. Secondly, we have one of the best pound for pound fighters that we have seen in history and the “more skilled fighter” come up in weight to challenge a seemingly indestructible champion, a powerful champion, but an aging champion.
Sugar Ray Leonard beat Marvin Hagler because of movement and speed. That’s how Crawford can beat Alvarez. Terence Crawford is the perceived more skilled boxer, similar to Leonard was when he fought Hagler. Canelo is the more powerful and aggressive fighter, but like Hagler has been a lot more active and competed in a lot more rounds. Yes, Alvarez is nearly three years younger than Terence Crawford, but he has 26 more professional fights and 275 more professional rounds, more than double Crawford’s total career rounds. At the time of their meeting in April 1987, Hagler had competed in 140 more rounds than Sugar Ray Leonard. At just 32 years old, Hagler was just a little bit slower than he used to be just like Canelo is now. This year marks Canelo’s 20th year as a professional boxer. He has been in a lot of competitive bouts, from a trilogy with GGG and a back-and-forth war with Sergey Kovalev, among many others.
Crawford Can Outbox Canelo
Canelo’s last fight against William Scull was a snooze fest, setting a record for fewest combined punches thrown according to CompuBox. Scull “ran” from Alvarez all night but successfully managed to be hit with only 56 punches from Canelo Alvarez, who averaged five punches landed per round, never topping more than eight punches landed in a round, and never throwing more than 11 punches in a round. Alvarez looked old and slow against the former IBF champion, and that is something Crawford will try to take advantage of. Over the course of his career, Terence Crawford has showed he is the ultimate competitor. There is no reason to believe he won’t be more engaged in the fight than William Scull was three months ago.
One of the two men in boxing who has successfully defeated Canelo Alvarez is Floyd Mayweather. Superior movement and speed were always Floyd’s bread and butter. But he was also able to generate a lot of offense simply by jabbing Canelo to the body and following it up with a straight shot to the head.
Crawford has a different skill set than Mayweather. Still, he possesses a quick and strong enough jab to keep Canelo off him and perhaps build his offense around. If Crawford can establish his jab and keep Canelo chasing him around the ring, he will begin to frustrate Canelo. From there, he can change stances and begin to put together more offense as long as he keeps moving. Terence Crawford is more than capable of outboxing Canelo, but it won’t be easy.
Has Father Time Beat Canelo?
Since his loss to Dmitri Bivol in May of 2022, Canelo has looked increasingly human and less like the invincible monster he was when he won the Ring Fighter of the Year in 2021, winning four fights in less than one year to become undisputed champion at 168 pounds. Alvarez has won seven straight fights against Gennady Golovkin, John Ryder, Jermell Charlo, Jaime Munguía, Edgar Berlanga, and William Scull. Despite facing off against three former champions, none of these men posed a significant challenge in the ring, yet Canelo was unable to knock any of them out. There has been talk of him carrying his opponents in fights, especially with Munguia and Berlanga. Alvarez has also considerably slowed down later in fights over the last three years, often looking winded and completely exhausted in the closing rounds. Is it age, or is he just in cruise control? Despite the signs of aging, Alvarez has convincingly defeated all his opponents since Bivol. He has more money than anyone in boxing; he is purely fighting for fun at this point.
On paper, Terence Crawford is the more skilled boxer. He has better footwork, he’s faster, he is a switch hitter, and he has a tremendous boxing IQ. Nonetheless, he is still Canelo Alvarez, one of the most efficient boxers of all time. His +/- of 12.8 is the 8th best in boxing; his 36.1% connect percentage is 5th best, and his 46.4% power punch connect percentage is also 5th best in boxing. Over the last five fights, CompuBox data illustrates Canelo’s output is sharply declining, but his accuracy, particularly on his power shots, has only improved.
“Canelo, yeah, he put all his energy, all his power on the single punch. And yeah, maybe single punch sometimes he’s harder than Beterbiev.” Former Undisputed Light Heavyweight Champion Dmitri Bivol on Canelo Alvarez’s Power.
Add the fact that he’s more comfortable at 168 pounds than Crawford, that he possesses more power than Crawford, and that he possesses one of the best chins in boxing, it is hard to bet against Alvarez.
Canelo brought in Jaron Boots Ennis for sparring, one of the men in boxing who can replicate Crawford’s switch-hitting style. This move has been praised by boxing analysts, saying it shows how seriously Alvarez is taking this fight in comparison to his other most recent fights.
Final Prediction: Who Wants it More?
I have gone back and forth on who will win this fight. I do think Terence Crawford can outbox the Canelo we’ve seen over the last three years.
A Canelo, who feels disrespected, who knows his legacy is on the line, and who doesn’t appreciate His Excellency Turki Alalshikh favoring Crawford so heavily, should be a more motivated Canelo than we have seen in recent years.
A loss to a fighter three weight classes below Canelo would tarnish his legacy, regardless of how skilled Crawford is. Overall, I am torn on the outcome of this fight. If this fight had occurred four years ago, there would not have been any debate. The Canelo Alvarez from 2019 to 2021 was a monster who was larger than life, who was like a lion in the ring. But is that lion still in there? I have some doubts whether Canelo is still that guy. I do not have those doubts about Crawford. For that reason, I predict Crawford gets the job done and wins a decision victory.
Interim Title Show 
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